Unlock Dilution
Runs offlineModel the dilution of a token unlock.
Dilution
14.29%
Supply after unlock
175M
Current market cap
$270,000,000.00
Price if cap holds
$1.54
Implied change
-$0.2571
If the market cap stays flat through the unlock, price settles near $1.54. That is the floor case, not a forecast — unlocked tokens do not all hit the market, and expectations usually price in before the date.
About unlock dilution
A token unlock adds supply without adding demand. If the market capitalisation stays flat across the event, the price has to fall by exactly the proportion of new supply — that is the arithmetic floor case this calculates. Reality is messier in both directions: unlocked tokens rarely all reach the market, and the market usually prices the event in beforehand, so the drop often arrives before the date rather than on it. The dilution percentage is the part that follows from arithmetic rather than sentiment.