Unlock Dilution
Model how a token unlock dilutes circulating supply and what that does to a simple price path.
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Enter circulating supply, tokens unlocking and current price.
About unlock dilution
A token unlock adds supply without adding demand. If the market capitalisation stays flat across the event, the price has to fall by exactly the proportion of new supply — that is the arithmetic floor case this calculates. Reality is messier in both directions: unlocked tokens rarely all reach the market, and the market usually prices the event in beforehand, so the drop often arrives before the date rather than on it. The dilution percentage is the part that follows from arithmetic rather than sentiment.
Common questions
What is token unlock dilution?
New liquid supply hitting the market when team, investor or ecosystem tokens unlock. Even if price stayed constant, each circulating token represents a smaller share of the same fully diluted pie — and price often does not stay constant.
How does this calculator model dilution?
From circulating supply, unlock size and a simple price path you assume. It is a sensitivity tool, not a prediction of what buyers will do when the cliff hits. Large unlocks can be absorbed or can cascade; the model does not pick which.
Is FDV the same as dilution?
Fully diluted valuation prices the whole scheduled supply; dilution is the moment some of that supply becomes liquid. Both matter, and neither alone says whether a holder is better or worse after an unlock.